Thoughts on technology

In his last blog Ian talked about keys and how they hadn't really changed in a long time and in the comments Jazz remarked that keys are pretty much perfect just the way they are. If we look at today's technology, we see that this is often the case. There is a rapid evolution of the technology in question until it reaches a plateau and there it stays except for minor improvements.

Here are some examples to illustrate. I am sure that if you took a 2007 model car and brought it back to the 1920's, people would instantly know what it was and how to drive the thing. There have been improvements but for all intents and purposes the car has been on a technological plateau for the last 80 years at least. Four wheels, a steering wheel and an internal combustion engine. Yes, there are improvements, ABS brakes, electronic fuel injection etc, but the basic concept hasn't changed.

The airplane is the same thing, we had a rapid growth of the technology from the Wright brothers until the Second World War where the piston engine airplane was at its height and another spurt when the jet engine came in. Since then it has been pretty much the same thing. An airliner of the 1960's is pretty much the same thing as one used today. In fact most of the planes used today date back to the 1970's (Boeing 747's, 737' etc) They did build a faster aircraft in the Concorde but the concept of faster than sound aircraft never really took off (pun intended), So here we are today with aircraft that though bigger in some cases, are not much different from aircraft 40 years ago.

The bicycle is another invention that hasn't changed in 100 years, The materials it is made of have become lighter and more high tech (carbon fiber and exotic alloys) but the basic concept is the same.

Why does technology reach a plateau, probably because the form it evolves into is almost perfect for its use. The bicycle is an almost perfect example, it would be very hard to improve upon the technology as it is now. It is perfect for its use, so why change it? Airplanes could be built to go faster but the cost penalty would be prohibitive and the benefits minimal, therefore they stay the same since the technological level they are at is perfect for the use they are put to. Replace the internal combustion engine? Up to now there has been no reason to, maybe with global warming that will change, but then the question becomes with what? We really have nothing to replace it with. We have hybrid cars, but even they have a gas burning engine. Why, because up to today it has been the most efficient means of propulsion for personal vehicles.

Will our information revolution reach the same plateau, probably, since computers will sooner or later push up against the laws of physics (there is a physical limit to how small you can make the pathways on a silicon chip). As for the information, well there is a limit to what a human being can read and use. For example try to "google" words like "homes for sale", according to Google it gives you "Results 1 - 10 of about 30,600,000 for homes for sale. (0.09 seconds) " You will read maybe the first 50 if you are very persevering, but what about the other 30.6 million? Yes maybe the first 50 are the most relevant, but by whose criteria? So we'll reach a plateau, since we'll just not be able to assimilate the vast amount of information that is out there.
So the old adage of building a better mousetrap really depends on what is already there. If the old technology is perfect for the job it does, you'll have a lot of difficulty selling your new mousetraps.